NYC Shootings
Kayla lives nine blocks away.
it’s getting close now.
Please reach out to those who need help.
Inventory Watch
What we have is an extra ~100 active listings this year.
It hasn’t discouraged buyers or sellers, based on the statistics.
Here’s the YoY distribution by price range.
NSDCC Active Listings Compared to 2024:
0-$2,000,000: same
$2,000,000 – $3,000,000: +30%
$3,000,000 – $4,000,000: +19%
$4,000,000 and above: +15%
I thought the extra inventory would all be high-enders, but it’s the middle of the pack that is bulking up. But it’s not affecting the enthusiasm of new listings coming to market. Of the 46 new NSDCC listings in the last week, only 26% of them were refreshed listings (previously active/unsold in the last few weeks).
Buyers – hang in there and keep looking – you never know!
NSDCC July Sales, Preliminary
The pundits might make some noise about dropping sales but around here the pricing is holding up. Besides, the 2024 sales look like an outlier compared to the two previous years.
Fewer sales are a sign of patient sellers, and unless there is a bulk dumping on prices in the coming months, we’re just going to wrap up the year with the biggest load of unsolds…ever?
More Shore
Tim is from Newport Beach so he’s taking some latitude here to see what’s acceptable around Carlsbad in 2025. He’s pretty funny but I haven’t seen much of the house:
Retire on $1500/mo.
Surrounded by majestic mountains and natural parks, the medieval city of Bragança in northern Portugal offers affordable living without sacrificing modern amenities. Home to 34,000 residents, Bragança boasts a private hospital, a modern shopping center, and furnished apartments for just $400 to $500 a month. Add another $150 for electricity, water, and internet, $30 for a transportation pass, $100 for private health insurance, and $400 for food, and a couple can live comfortably on $1,500 or less per month.
Meander along cobbled lanes, admire the 12th-century castle, and practice your Portuguese at the local mercado while picking up the freshest produce, meats, seafood, and artisanal products. Bragança is just the right size, where neighbors know each other, and every corner of the medieval streets tells a story.
Throughout the year, Bragança comes alive with festivals—from the Medieval Fair to cultural celebrations and religious holidays. Dining out is affordable, with mid-range restaurant meals costing around $15 and quick bites at cafés available for even less.
Outdoor enthusiasts will love leisurely strolls in the city’s parks or more challenging hikes in Parque Natural de Montesinho, a vast natural reserve in the nearby mountains.
Bragança has a continental climate, with hot, dry summers reaching 86°F and cold, wet winters, where temperatures can dip to freezing. But the ample rainfall keeps the landscape lush and green, with rolling hills, forested parkland, and breathtaking vistas.
Check out 16 places where you can retire on $1,500 per month:
https://internationalliving.com/places-where-you-can-live-on-as-little-as-1500-a-month/
Capital-Gains Tax Removal
Virtually every homeowner around here would benefit greatly from the capital-gains tax being removed from home sales. Only those who bought in the last 3-4 years don’t have a $250,000+ gain already ($500,000 for married couples), but they bought their forever home and aren’t going anywhere. Virtually every NSDCC listing that was purchased prior to 2020 is priced at 50% over what they paid!
All that matters now is what Trump thinks about it:
President Donald Trump says he’s eyeing the elimination of capital-gains tax on home sales as a way to coax more people into selling their homes, amid a housing market that’s been frozen for nearly three years by high prices and high interest rates.
Oh great – aren’t the potential home sellers going to wait-and-see if this bill gets passed before listing their home for sale? Could this be what finally slows the surge of inventory?
First we had people (buyers and sellers) waiting for rates to go down, and now more sellers will want to wait for months or longer to list their home for sale.
An artificially-screwed up market….again!
Then once we know when the bill might pass, there will be a hyper-stimulated surge of new listings as sellers recognize that it will be better to get out early on this one. It’s going to be insane, and unlike anything we’ve ever seen before!
Valuations in 2025
Hat tip to Ryan the appraiser for his great tips on how to use comps today. It’s a real problem when we have a hot 1st quarter and then sellers and listing agents want to use those comps for the rest of the year like they are hard facts on what a home is worth today:
https://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/2025/07/24/the-problem-with-comps-in-todays-housing-market/
You can also follow Ryan on twitter:
Now Pending
Two other active listings within a block of ours on Linda Lane had reduced their price to the same $1,500,000 so it was a real horse race over the last week. We were the only two-story home, but we had the best yard, and thankfully, we were the first ones to get into escrow!
The buyer-agent is an old friend and we’ve done SIX other deals together, the most of any other agent in history and she is bringing up her daughter in the business too. It didn’t mean anything to anyone else, but I slept better last night!
https://www.compass.com/listing/2025-linda-lane-carlsbad-ca-92008/1887446643870527721/
Ozzy RIP
I was a true Black Sabbath fan – I had Paranoid and Volume 4 on 8-track! This was the best quality video I could find with the most coherent performance – it was filmed in 1998 after the band got back together (Ozzy was out for 18 years doing 13 solo albums)!
This is the funniest Ozzy thing I’ve seen – wait until the end:
Zillow Local Forecast
The meandering through Flatsville is predicted to continue for the next 12 months – at least. The areas that have single-digit sales will have fewer comps to rely on and be particularly hard to accurately predict the values. Expect some wild fluctuations on occasion!
It probably means we’re in for a long slow grind downward on price – saved only by the first-quarter flurries that should happen every year. Unless mortgage rates dip into the 5s.
Carlsbad NW – 92008
Carlsbad SE – 92009
Carlsbad NE – 92010
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
Solana Beach – 92075
